Fishermen, not only in this region, but around the globe, are, by nature, an overly superstitious lot.
For centuries, harvesters and mariners have considered the following bad luck; whistling onboard a vessel, stepping aboard with your left foot first, starting a trip on a Friday, killing a seabird, looking back when leaving port, red-haired people, anything involving bananas, a cat washing behind its ears and countless, countless others.
Fishermen have never left anything to chance and have always used anything and everything to try and protect themselves on the water, while trying to predict what is to come. Now with Christmas on the horizon, will our superstitious Atlantic Canadian fishermen be adding crystal balls to their holiday wish list?
After the turbulent, topsy-turvy last 12–18 months in the fishery, harvesters might be looking for any device or sign that might help them predict what the upcoming 2024 season might hold. But before we start gazing into glass orbs or perusing soggy tea leaves, let’s take a look at what industry analysts are predicting for next year.
While there is of course some discrepancy across seafood industry prognosticators, they are all in agreement that 2024 promises to be a better year overall.
The first two species that always lead the price speculation conversations are lobster and snow crab.
As everyone knows all too well, the Canadian and international seafood industry suffered several setbacks due to the global pandemic in 2020, including delayed openings of various fishing seasons and a temporary, but steep drop in both domestic (mainly restaurant) and international demand. This was particularly the case for lobster, which depends heavily on international demand, as well as cruise ship and dining room activity. As a result, the price of lobster plummeted to, in some areas, half of what it had been prior to the pandemic.
Jump ahead to present day and the majority of analysts are in agreement that the price lobster harvesters will be receiving for their catches at dockside should improve over 2023. It looks like the price jump will not be exorbitant, but should be, on average, at least a dollar or two per pound over prices paid this year.
Globally, lobster will continue to be the highest priced traded seafood product group. As well, Atlantic lobster’s share of Canada’s seafood export value is projected to increase from about 30 per cent to 40 per cent as this country solidifies its position as the single largest net exporter of lobster in the world.
As for snow crab, despite the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s decision to once again close the Bering snow crab season for 2023–2024, prices for this lucrative shellfish will not be rebounding to the record 2022 levels, but should be up at least $1 per pound and possibly a little more.
Also, as the Asian economy continues to rebound from the dark days of COVID-19, increasing, middle-class disposable income in the region continues to create demand for premium seafood, such as snow crab from Canada. In fact, some analysts are predicting that this bounce-back Asia Pacific region will contribute nearly 40 per cent of the growth of the global market next year.
Taking a more macroeconomic approach, the 2024 international seafood market is going to be driven by an increased demand for products with a high nutritional value.
Ironically, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many consumers changed their eating habits over the last few years and started preferring seafood because of its excellent nutritional qualities and health benefits.
For example, according to the American Heart Association “people are becoming more aware of the health advantages of eating fish, as fish is filled with omega-3 fatty acids and vitamins such as D and B2 (riboflavin). A healthy diet should include fish at least twice a week.” Thus, fish is a highly preferred seafood, which, in turn, is expected to drive the growth of the fish segment, thereby driving the global seafood market during 2024.
As well, people are once again eating out.
The growing trend of out-of-home dining is predicted to stimulate the expansion of seafood and premium servings that contain crustaceans, such as crab and lobster, in both fast-service and full-service restaurants.
In addition, traditional supermarkets and retailers have also pivoted post-COVID and are expanding their seafood departments. The current shift in the retail industry toward a more expansive, organized format with more varieties of both fresh and frozen products has accelerated the growth of the retail industry. Convenience and value have become important for consumers because of their hectic lifestyles and work schedules. Organized retailers provide a large number of products under the same roof, which enables consumers to save time and allows them a variety of choices.
However, customers still prefer to buy seafood by going to physical stores and looking for the best species of seafood to try and organized retailing offers convenience in buying seafood products such as fish. Thus, the extensive scope of organized retailing is expected to positively affect the growth of the global seafood market during the coming year.
As a result, some analysts are predicting the 2024 global seafood industry to grow nearly five per cent in 2024 and more than 13 per cent between now and 2028.
So, what does the future hold for 2024?
As every reader of this magazine is painfully aware, the seafood industry is anything but predictable. But there are some promising signs of both market and price stability looming. Fishermen’s expenses are still bound to be higher for the upcoming 2024 season than they would like. However, if they know in advance they will be getting a consistent, fair price for their catches, they can better manage their business enterprises and make more informed spending decisions. You can be rest-assured that everyone has their collective fingers and toes crossed for calmer seas and smoother sailing ahead next year.
