Assessment Shows Northern Cod Stock Continues to Hold its Own
On any given year, the iconic Northern cod stock normally garners most of the attention when assessment time rolls around each spring.
But this year, all of the talk surrounded the 3Ps cod stock off Newfoundland’s south coast.
Earlier this year, in January, at the Groundfish Advisory Council meeting, the stakeholders involved in the 3Ps fishery seemed to have a consensus that for the 2021–2022 season, there would be a rollover of the 2020–2021 total allowable catch (TAC) at 2,691 tonnes.
However, that all changed in late March when reports surfaced about a Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) recommendation to put the 3Ps cod fishery under moratorium.
It would be an understatement to say the reaction to this rumour was swift and furious.
On March 23, the union representing 3Ps harvesters, the FFAW-Unifor, as well as the processor-based Association of Seafood Processors and Atlantic Groundfish Council, all withdrew from participating in the Canada-France Delegation for the 3Ps cod fishery.
“We have serious concerns about how FFAW members are considered in decision-making leading to positions for this negotiation, and vocalized similar concerns following last year’s process. The recommendation proposed for this year relating to 3Ps cod is unacceptable and must be revisited,” said Keith Sullivan, FFAW-Unifor President.
“It’s unfortunate news that the federal mandate from DFO is to proceed with a recommendation to close the 3Ps cod fishery,” says Derek Butler, Executive Director of ASP. “Industry has been responsive to the science in following the biomass trajectory and reducing quotas, and we are committed to sustainability. But that does not mean no fishing given indications of growth.”
“Given that the mandate for the Canadian Delegation is something that we cannot support, we feel we have no choice but to withdraw from the position of advisors to this week’s bilateral meetings with France,” announced Bruce Chapman, President of the Atlantic Groundfish Council. “We do not make this decision lightly. In my over 40 years of being involved as an advisor to DFO in many bilateral and multi-lateral fisheries negotiations, there have been many times when there has been differing views. But never something so severe that has required this action.”
The Newfoundland and Labrador Groundfish Industry Development Council (NLGIDC) also stated that it found it difficult to understand DFO’s rationale in proposing a moratorium for 3Ps cod in 2021 and opposed the approach.
“During the 3Ps industry advisory meeting early in 2021, the DFO science presentation indicated the most important factors in determining stock growth are high natural mortality and a changing ecosystem and not the commercial fishery,” said Jim Baird, the Chairperson of the NLGIDC.
Baird also stated the following facts from the recent 3Ps assessment:
- The recent assessment did not include data from a research vessel survey in 2020 (it was cancelled because of COVID-19).
- The single data source used in the assessment was the longline sentinel fishery index. This showed a substantial increase between 2019 and 2020.
- The fishing mortality has been decreasing and in 2020 was the lowest in 25 years.
- The natural mortality has been increasing and in 2020 was the highest in the 60-year time series.
“In fact, the DFO science indicated there is a good possibility (58 per cent) of stock growth with a status quo catch in 2021. All industry representatives at the advisory meeting recommended a status-quo catch for 2021.”
The reaction to the term moratorium was predictable and DFO officials in Ottawa must have received the message from stakeholders because on the evening of April 1, the department announced its decision for a 50 per cent quota cut for the 3Ps cod fishery. The 2021 quota will be set at 1,345 tonnes.
“While the cut is better than a closure and provides some hope for the future, a further 50 per cent cut is still not justified by the available fisheries science,” noted Sullivan.
As repeated by many speakers at a FFAW rally in Clarenville on March 31 in support of 3Ps cod harvesters — the cod fishery in that area supports hundreds of local fishing enterprises, more than 200 plant workers and other spin-off employment, he added.
“Fish harvesters support conservation, and for that reason they accepted the 55 per cent cut to their quota in 2020. The decision to apply a further 50 per cent cut this year indicates that DFO has no plan to deal with the health of the cod stock in that area. It is either cut quotas or closure. Other management measures, such as controlling the seal population, are just not under consideration,” Sullivan said.
2J3JKL Northern Cod Assessment
On a brighter note, DFO’s recent assessment report for the 2J3JKL Northern cod reported a slight increase in the stock for 2021.
The FFAW-Unifor said that pursuant to the recently released Northern cod rebuilding plan, the quota for the stewardship fishery should increase to 12,999 tonnes, a small increase over 2020. The 2020 Northern cod stewardship fishery was set at 12,350 tonnes.
“While it is nice to see an increase to the stock, there are significant problems with the content of this assessment,” says Keith Smith, a harvester from Trinity Bay who was in attendance. “We went through several days of presentations and the impact of seals was significantly downplayed. It’s like DFO operate in denial of reality.”
The FFAW also remain concerned with the limit reference point established by DFO for Northern cod. “The limit reference point (LRP) is the benchmark that determines when a stock is in the critical zone,” says Dr. Erin Carruthers, FFAW Fisheries Scientist. “As such, establishing an LRP that takes into account stock growth over a longer time period is essential from both a fisheries science and resource management perspective.”
The LRP for Northern cod is set based on the perceived health of the stock for a five-year period in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This limited window ignores other points in time, particularly the mid to late 1970s when the stock was lower than it currently is, and fishing activity was more intense. Even under those conditions, the stock rebounded, the union explained.
Newfoundland cod processors, represented by the Atlantic Groundfish Council, also said the assessment news was encouraging.
“The projected stock growth is encouraging but also highlights our need for patience,” explained Kris Vascotto, Executive Director of the Atlantic Groundfish Council. “We’d all like to see drastic improvements today, but we know it won’t recover overnight or over a single year. Collectively, that’s why we continue to exercise restraint and focus our efforts on contributing to its future recovery. While being better informed by projections, we should not actually increase the catch until such projections have been realized.”
The NLGIDC said it was not surprised by the results of the Northern cod assessment but emphasized that more science work needs to be done for this stock and should be completed before the next assessment in 2022.
“This stock displays similar characteristics as 3Ps cod: very low fishing mortality with high natural mortality. For Northern cod, the fishing mortality is less than 2 per cent while the natural mortality rate is about 0.50 which equates to 40 per cent of the population being removed by natural causes. Clearly the high natural mortality requires additional investigation for both the 3Ps and 2J3KL stocks.”
“The rebuilding plan for Northern cod, announced at the end of 2020, is frustrating for many industry representatives. This plan constrains the catch and fishing mortality to recent low levels, while about 20 times more cod dies annually from natural causes than the fishery. Clearly a rebuilding plan that permits fishing mortality and catch to increase minimally would still contain the necessary precaution while providing additional benefit to harvesters and processors. Other work required for Northern cod includes important analysis on the model that is used to derive stock size. These problems with the model inputs were first identified at the 2019 assessment and were discussed again at the recent meeting, however there was no resolution. These issues need to be resolved before the next assessment meeting,” the NLGIDC explained in a press release.
