When the wind is in the east, it’s good for neither man nor beast. When the wind is in the north, the old folk should not venture forth. When the wind is in the south, it blows the bait in the fishes’ mouth. When the wind is in the west, it is of all the winds the best.
If only the science of climatology was as simplistic as this old weather saying.
The only thing predictable about the weather in Atlantic Canada is its unpredictability.
That statement is not exactly going to shock anyone. We are now smack in the middle of the North Atlantic hurricane season and who knows what manner of tempest could be brewing in the warm waters of the south, intensifying and heading this way. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1.
In fact, as this editorial was being written, Hurricane Florence was making landfall in the Southern U.S. and Hurricane Gordon was after lashing the central Gulf Coast.
Ask any seasoned fisherman and they will tell you that the weather over the last decade has changed considerably from they way it used to be. Sure, there have always been storms, but not to the same degree and frequency being witnessed today.
Last year’s (2017) hurricane season produced 17 named storms of which 10 became hurricanes including six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) — including the first two major hurricanes to hit the continental U.S. in 12 years.
Based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of the storms during the season and is used to classify the strength of the entire hurricane season, 2017 was the seventh most active season in the historical record dating to 1851 and was the most active season since 2005.
The global fishing industry is taking notice of this weather trend as researchers are predicting fishermen around the world will face an influx of larger, more powerful ocean storms.
Many scientific studies this decade have suggested rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures, as well as a slowdown in atmospheric currents, will inspire more frequent and larger storms, especially ocean and coastal storms.
A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change showed an increase in large storms is likely to make fishing more dangerous. Larger storms could also damage fish habitat and disrupt fish breeding grounds.
“Storms are a threat to fishermen’s safety, productivity, assets and jobs and to the health of billions of people around the world who rely on fish for their daily nutrition,” University of Exeter researcher Nigel Sainsbury said in a recent news release.
“Changing storminess could have serious consequences for vulnerable coastal communities around the world. Conducting research in this area is critical to support the adaptation of fisheries to climate change.”
For example, Hurricane Irma cost Florida’s fishing industries almost $200 million, according to a damage assessment released by the state and federal governments.
The storm crossed the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane last September 10, then traveled to Southwest Florida and up the state. According to the damage assessment, Florida’s seafood industry is worth $5.9 billion a year.
One of the common observations you will hear from fishermen right across Atlantic Canada is how much warmer ocean temperatures are now than in previous years — and it is true.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that over the past 10 years, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99 per cent of the global ocean. Recent studies indicate that the enhanced warming is associated with a northerly shift in the Gulf Stream.
Research has shown warmer ocean temperatures can help fuel storms forming in the atmosphere above, providing heat and moisture. Studies have also shown warmer air can contain more moisture, yielding larger storm clouds.
In addition to making commercial fishing operations more dangerous, storms can harm fish populations themselves.
“Our past research has shown how warming seas gradually change the composition of fisheries by shifts in distribution,” said Steve Simpson, a marine biologist at Exeter.
“But storms can radically change fish populations via temporary or permanent displacement and can interrupt fish larval dispersal and damage or destroy essential habitat that fish depend upon.”
While there are many specific arguments over what is ultimately responsible for this increase in western Atlantic water temperatures, one thing is for certain; it is impacting the species living and spawning in these waters. The most significant species, at least for now, that seems to be impacted by this warming water is the valuable and lucrative lobster.
As the water warms, many fishermen have been hypothesizing that lobsters are following the cooler water and crossing the U.S. border into Canadian waters.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) has reported that the waters of southwestern Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy have experienced significant warming trends — which seem to coincide with the remarkable rise in lobster landings over the last few seasons.
DFO has reported that there is clearly a relationship between temperatures and population, but other factors are also involved in the remarkable rise in lobster landings, including a decrease in groundfish predators over the same period.
As fishermen in lobster fishing areas (LFA) 34 and 35 continue their preparations to hit the water at the end of November and hope for another prosperous season, let’s hope scientists from Environment Canada, as well as their colleagues around the globe, continue the all-important work into predicting and analyzing storms — there is a lot riding on this.
