At October’s Groundfish Forum, there were no unexpected developments in global groundfish stocks.
On a year-to-year basis, it was very much business as usual.
But if you look at a three-year picture, from 2017 to 2019, total global wild whitefish production has dropped four per cent, with cod down 13.4 per cent over the past three years.
This change in the supply picture has had price impacts in several areas.
First, international cod prices (Barents Sea) have climbed 21 per cent since October 2017. Alaskan pollock prices have climbed 43 per cent since the B season prices were set in 2017.
How has a four per cent drop in global groundfish led to this much of a reaction?
First, the drop in cod is much more than four per cent.
According to figures from the Groundfish Forum, the total drop from the October 2017 forecast to the 2019 forecast for Atlantic cod is 13.4 per cent.
For Pacific cod, the supply drop over these three years is 16 per cent. Given the continued strong demand for cod in the United Kingdom and in the foodservice sector in the U.S., China and Japan, this kind of price reaction is justified.
For Alaskan pollock, the price change is even more dramatic: up 43 per cent since 2017. Here the issue has been one of market rationalization, where a period of weakness in Europe due to price competition among secondary processors has worked itself through the system and there is no longer any pollock block inventories to be cleared.
At the same time, shortages of non-pollock surimi fish, such as threadfin bream, have pushed surimi users in Asia back toward Alaskan pollock.
A further factor could be the rise in cod prices, which is now causing some customers to re-examine using deep-skin pollock fillets in applications where cod and pollock can both prove acceptable.
Given the continued supply trends, strong pricing for groundfish appears locked in for 2019.
The total overall groundfish reduction is only 186,000 tonnes, out of a projected global catch of 7.064 million tonnes in 2019.
But the species where catches have increased, which is mostly saithe, with an increase of 8,000 tonnes, are dwarfed by the volume of reduction in Atlantic cod (71,000 tonnes), haddock (3,000 tons), Pacific cod (18,000 tonnes) and Alaskan pollock (93,000 tonnes).
The overall trends in whitefish show how sustainable management has come into play for all these stocks, so that when there are declines in survey data and projected stock size, this gets translated into lower quotas and catch limits.
For some of the stocks, ICES recommendations are for even further reductions than anticipated by the groundfish forum. For example, in 2019, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) would like to see a cut of 13 per cent below 2018 total allowable catch (TAC) on Barents Sea cod, a cut of 25 per cent in haddock and a cut of 13 per cent in Saithe.
In past years, ICES recommendations have not been followed to the letter by managers in the Barents Sea, but the direction of cuts in stocks has been consistent with the ICES advice.
As for farmed whitefish, the groundfish forum does not make its own predictions on tilapia.
The FAO reports global production of around four million tonnes, but only a small fraction of this gets into international trade.
For catfish/pangasius, the forum is projecting an increase of nearly 14 per cent in 2019, which would be consistent with higher pangasius prices attracting more output.
Another positive factor for pangasius is the apparent resolution of Vietnam’s market access to the U.S., as the USDA has tentatively recommended an equivalency rating for Vietnams food safety systems.
This would mean most trade in pangasius to the U.S. market will continue without disruption.
For salmon, the Forum expects continued growth of 4.85 per cent in 2019, which is not far from the current Kontali estimates of four per cent growth in global salmon in 2018.
This article was republished with permission of John Sackton and seafood.com.
