The single biggest change in whitefish forecasts presented at the recent Groundfish Forum in Hamburg, Germany was for Barents Sea Cod, where Norwegian and Russian catches were thought to drop 11 per cent in 2017.
However, closer reading of the situation suggests this might not be the case. The forecast was largely based on International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommendations and in 2015 the organization recommended a quota of 805,000 tonnes, while the actual TAC was set at 894,000 tonnes. The groundfish forum numbers possibly assumed that this year, the ICES recommendation would be followed and TACs this year would be lowered.
However, a survey analysis by the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) of ICES has raised a number of issues that suggest the biomass, age structure and spawning stock of cod may all be more favorable than assumed.
Two issues were highlighted in the working group report on the 2016 survey. The first was that abundance of year one and year two cod may be higher than the survey indicated because new research shows that cod populations are established well outside the boundary areas used for the population estimates. If this is borne out, there is even a larger biomass in the Barents Sea than first thought.
Secondly, the models generally do not consider cod aged more than nine years old, yet the strong 2004 and 2005 year classes are still in the survey and cod aged 10 to 13 years are more abundant than assumed by the model. The AFWG says that if the model is adjusted to include fish beyond the age of nine years, there is also a significant change.
ICES is reviewing its Northeast Arctic cod model and although they may still make a recommendation for this year that is similar to their recommendation for last year, there is increasing scientific support for maintaining cod quotas at their current level in the Barents Sea, rather than cutting them.
If this is in fact adopted for 2017 by Norway and Russia, then the cuts forecast in Atlantic cod will not materialize.
The Groundfish Forum earlier heard that groundfish supplies will largely continue to be stable, with the primary exception of Atlantic cod.
Cod harvests will decline slightly in the EU, but will rise in Iceland and Canada.
Overall groundfish supplies will decline 1.59 per cent in 2017, according to the projections.
Outside of Atlantic cod, global groundfish supplies were stable. Haddock will decline by 2.3 per cent, while saithe and redfish will increase by 3.9 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively.
Alaskan pollock is also stable with catches fluctuating by less than 10,000 tonnes out of 3.4 million tonnes.
South American Hake will also increase slightly.
Overall, the growth and stability of groundfish has shown that the issues that once occupied the venerable Groundfish Forum have completely changed.
At the time the Forum began, groundfisheries were in crisis in many parts of the world. Overfishing was occurring, and due to collapses in stock, new aquaculture species like tilapia and pangasius were making rapid inroads in the whitefish market. Even pollock, which has never been overfished in Alaska, was collapsing in Russia after a period of overharvesting.
But with the application of fishery management principles of harvest control and scientific limits on stock removals, virtually all the groundfish stocks are now fluctuating in healthy ranges. That is why some of the press campaigns by NGOs on overfishing of groundfish, such as Greenpeace’s redlisting of Alaska pollock, are so outdated.
This article was republished with permission of John Sackton and seafood.com.
