The snow crab supply picture from Atlantic Canada is coming into better focus.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) announced in April that the quota in the Southern Gulf, which was 21,725 tonnes last year, will more than double to 43,822 tonnes this year.
Combined with the Newfoundland quota of 35,419 tonnes, total Canadian harvests from the two primary producing areas will total 79,241 tonnes of crab, or nearly 175 million pounds of live crab if the entire quota is caught.
In 2016, these two areas had combined quota of 62,531 tonnes. Actual catches in Newfoundland were about 3,000 tonnes below the quota. The Gulf quota was 100 per cent caught in 2016.
Assuming that actual harvests will be below the quota in both Newfoundland and the Gulf, a conservative estimate is that these areas will put 75,000 tonnes on the market, compared to 59,000 in 2016.This is an increase of 27 per cent.
There will be some slight decreases in Quebec and Nova Scotia, while in Labrador, 2J remains about the same.
The DFO report showed snow crab biomass in the Southern Gulf near 100,000 tonnes, near its highest ever recorded level of 103,000 tonnes.
This allowed DFO to use a 44.2 per cent exploitation rate, with a 95 per cent confidence that the biomass available to the fishery in 2018 will be in the range of 77,000 tonnes (the actual range is 62,000 to 93,000 tonnes).
The tone of the report strongly suggests that the biomass will again be very high for the 2018 fishery, in the top 25 per cent of all years.
The psychology of the crab market shifted in the winter of 2016, when Alaska quotas were cut substantially. Sellers who were very successful with crab in 2015 were not expecting to run into a resource shortage. The resulting rise in price has dominated snow crab markets since then.
It was also the basis for the Price Panel in Newfoundland to award a $4.39/pound minimum crab price to harvesters ($3.31) for live crab, based on record prices paid this winter.
The change in the supply picture will undoubtedly have another market impact.
Wholesale crab prices may see a lot of volatility at the beginning of the season due to the varying factors influencing the different producing areas.
Newfoundland is seeing a 22 per cent quota cut and will see intense competition among processors to secure crab.
The Gulf will see heavy landings and likely trip limits, so processors will be working at capacity and eager to quickly sell product to finance more purchases.
In May, when the fishery has been underway for a few weeks, a clearer picture of the market demand and supply should emerge.
This article was republished with permission of John Sackton and seafood.com.
