Some Industry Groups Taking Issue with Recent 2J3KL DFO Stock Assessment
In the midst of other fisheries across the region facing uncertainty due to the world-wide impact of COVID-19, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) recently released it’s latest Northern cod stock status assessment and the news was not good.
A DFO technical briefing document stated that “We continue to be concerned about the status of the Northern cod stock, which remains in the critical zone. “Survey indices suggest that recently observed stock growth (2012–2016) may have stalled. Ecosystem conditions indicated limited productivity and reduced food availability may be limiting growth of cod. The precautionary approach requires that removals be kept at lowest possible levels.”
This news was disappointing to many, especially since DFO announced last year that the iconic Northern cod stock off Newfoundland appeared to be in better shape than initially thought.
A year ago, it was reported that the spawning biomass (SSB) for 2J3KL cod had returned to its level of two years ago, about 48 per cent of the critical level needed for a healthy fishery or 398,000 tonnes.
In fact, DFO actually revised its 2018 stock projection. The department reported that the 2018 SSB had been revised from 315,000 tonnes to 383,000 tonnes and was anticipated to further increase in 2020.
Upon reviewing the findings, several industry stakeholders challenged the DFO stock assessment. One such group was the Newfoundland and Labrador Groundfish Industry Development Council (NLGIDC).
The organization said that it appears that some important information was not included in the scientific deliberations.
“There is an internationally-accepted scientific model that has been used for this stock since 2016. This model provides information on overall stock biomass, fishing mortality, natural mortality and recruitment. All the data required to complete this analysis was available to scientists, but they chose not to run the model for this update. This model has been the cornerstone of recent scientific assessments of the 2J3KL stock.”
“With the difficult year we are all facing, it is imperative that all available information be used to inform management decisions,” said Jim Baird, the independent chairperson of the NLGIDC.
“Some information that would normally come from the 2J3KL scientific model could have been obtained from other sources. Fishing mortality could have been derived from fish tagging experiments and data on recruitment or new fish that could enter the fishery in 2020 could have been obtained from the research vessel survey data. If these analyses were completed by science, they were not reported on in the scientific update report. This information would have been valuable for industry representatives in providing advice to the DFO minister on a way forward for this important stock in a very turbulent year.
It is disappointing that DFO completed this update without any consideration of industry perspectives, input that normally occurs for these types of scientific assessments. We understand that face-to-face meetings would have not been appropriate, but this process could have been completed by video or teleconference,” the group said in a press release.
The FFAW-Unifor also called into question the recent stock status report for the 2J3JKL Northern cod stock.
“We understand that the worldwide pandemic has certainly impacted many things, including the way DFO conducts its science assessments. The traditional roundtable was understandably unable to take place this year, however, stakeholders were not given any opportunity to provide input or feedback into this science report which is certainly unacceptable. There are other available avenues to be able to contribute without meeting face to face,” says Keith Sullivan, FFAW-Unifor president.
“DFO science has suggested that stock growth for Northern cod has stalled, but this is not what harvesters are seeing on the water, nor is it what the data itself indicates. The data in the update shows the biomass estimate based on the trawl survey increasing from about 400,000 tonnes to about 500,000 tonnes and showing clear signs of growth,” explained Sullivan.
The union representing inshore harvesters noted in a press release that the 2019 survey, which is one of the primary indicators used to measure stock growth, was heavily impacted by weather, particularly in 3K, which calls into question the accuracy of the limited data. Furthermore, DFO did not run the assessment model to estimate spawning stock biomass, natural mortality or fishing mortality in the 2019 update.
“Despite no updated estimates of natural mortality, natural mortality remains the concerning factor for the 2J3JKL cod stock, as with the other important fish stocks around Newfoundland and Labrador. DFO recently released an update on harp seal population that showed significant and steady increases to the seal population, particularly on the northeast coast of N.L. where 95 per cent of pup production occurs. Although there was no update on fishing mortality estimates, given removals relative to the size of the stock, they must have remained low. The catch of this stock from all sources has averaged about two per cent of the fishable biomass in the last number of years; lower than any other cod stock in the world — even though it is the third largest in the world,” the FFAW explained.
However, the industry group that represents year-round groundfish harvesters across Atlantic Canada expressed caution in the wake of the DFO stock assessment.
The Atlantic Groundfish Council (AGC) said the Northern cod science update demonstrated that the biomass showed virtually no change over last year, continuing to be in the critical zone, at about 50 per cent of the limit reference point (LRP) (i.e., 50 per cent of the point in which the stock is considered healthy enough to support a full commercial fishery).
“The information provided by DFO suggests the stock recovery has stalled and cod productivity will be further challenged in 2020,” says Kris Vascotto, AGC executive director.
“Although this could change in the future, without any signs of stock growth we cannot, in good conscience, increase catch in 2020.”
In a press release, for 2020 the AGC is recommending a catch of no more than the 10,000 metric tonnes landed in 2019.
“This is a 19 per cent reduction of the 12,350-tonne catch limit permitted in 2019, but consistent with the actual amount caught by harvesters. Although the stalled recovery is caused by nature, it is important to monitor and continue to limit fishery removals as they are the only removals within industry’s direct control. If the poor ecosystem conditions continue and the productivity of cod does not improve, a further reduction in catch could be needed as soon as next year.”
Alberto Wareham, President and CEO of Icewater Seafoods in Arnold’s Cove, said he hopes that when industry makes recommendations and the government makes decisions, they remember how aggressive catches can hurt recovering stocks.
Even though his plant is operating at less than 50 per cent capacity and depends solely on cod, his company is not interested in seeing an increase in catch in 2020, Wareham noted.
“My view is the same as it has been in previous years. We must exercise restraint. We must focus on the long term and take great care in monitoring this stock to support a sustainable recovery,” he insisted.
Ocean Choice President Blaine Sullivan said “We believe Northern cod can recover. But we need to be patient and allow it to reach a full and sustainable recovery. Centuries of fishing for cod has taught us we need to protect the stocks if they are to be there for future generations.”
