Former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi is famously known for stating that “You can’t shake hands with a clenched fist.”
The latest chapter in Donald Trump’s ongoing, inexplicable vendetta to get Canada to bend to his economic will, has once again solidified his northern neighbours to drop the gloves, get the elbows up and roll the tinfoil onto their collective knuckles. I doubt any handshakes will be offered from this side of the border any time soon.
As The Navigator has been reporting for months now, Trump’s constant and erratic tariff threats have cast an aura of uncertainty and foreboding right across the Canadian economy — including the latest 50 per cent U.S. tariffs announced in August.
While some industries, including steel, aluminum and auto parts, are bound to take a proverbial gut punch from the latest ridiculous tariffs, the Canadian seafood industry remains pretty much unscathed.
Fish harvesters have been negatively impacted by rising fuel prices — thanks to Trump’s other war in the Middle East. But, for the most part, seafood was not part of the latest 50 per cent duties slapped on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian products.
Thanks to what remains of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), Canadian-harvested fish and seafood remain exempt, provided they satisfy the agreement’s rules of origin. But uncertainty remains as to what will ultimately happen to CUSMA and the exemptions in the near future.
The seafood industry currently depends heavily on CUSMA rules and preferential access. The CUSMA review has been underway in 2026, so uncertainty over the future North American trade relationship is a significant concern for seafood exporters.
Photo by Daniel Torok — White House.
For example, if seafood products were eventually subjected to a 50 per cent tariff, the economics would be staggering. A U.S. importer buying a C$100 shipment would effectively face another C$50 in duty. In practice, that cost would probably be divided among harvesters, processors, exporters, distributors and consumers rather than simply being absorbed by one party.
As The Navigator has highlighted on more than one occasion, even without a seafood tariff, the trade war can negatively impact our important industry.
If tariffs continue to raise prices across the American economy, the impact will be lower U.S. consumer demand. American seafood producers could gain an advantage if Canadian products eventually become subject to restrictions while U.S. products don’t.
As well, exchange-rate volatility will hit the Canadian-dollar value of U.S. sales.
The CUSMA question mark will also result in investment uncertainty, meaning processors may hesitate to expand plants, vessels or cold-storage capacity when the rules governing their largest export market could change.
And what about Canada’s proposed retaliation?
Canada has announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs beginning September 8, 2026, aimed at selected U.S. goods. Those initial tariffs surprisingly included U.S. seafood imports — hit with a rate of 25 per cent. But within a day or two, after concerns from the Atlantic Canadian seafood industry, those tariffs were quickly rescinded by the Mark Carney government. The last thing we need is Trump right now, eyeballing Canadian seafood entering the U.S.
But what about the efforts to find new markets for Canadian seafood?
Canada already exports seafood to markets such as China and the European Union, but its dependence on a small number of destinations remains substantial.
In 2025, the United States, China, and the European Union together accounted for 89 per cent of Canadian seafood exports. A prolonged period of U.S. trade uncertainty could therefore encourage Canadian businesses to develop stronger relationships with European and Asian buyers, expand marketing efforts and invest in products designed for different international markets.
Diversification, however, cannot happen instantly. Seafood is highly perishable and developing new international markets requires reliable transportation, certification, distribution networks, marketing, and established relationships with buyers.
American markets are geographically close to Canadian fishing communities, which gives them a major logistical advantage. A lobster processor in Atlantic Canada cannot necessarily replace a major U.S. buyer with a European customer simply because tariffs make the American market less attractive. Consequently, diversification should be understood as a long-term strategy rather than an immediate solution.
Ultimately, the potential of U.S. tariffs to reshape Canada’s seafood industry depends on their scope and duration.
A temporary tariff on selected products would create disruption, but could be absorbed by some businesses. Broad, long-lasting tariffs on seafood would pose a much greater threat, particularly because of Canada’s heavy dependence on the American market. The current exemption therefore represents an important opportunity for Canadian policymakers and industry leaders to prepare rather than wait for a crisis.
Canada’s best response continues to be diplomatic efforts to preserve tariff-free seafood trade with a serious commitment to market diversification.
At the same time, federal government financial assistance could help businesses develop new export markets, improve processing capacity, invest in value-added products and strengthen
transportation infrastructure.
So, where does this leave the vulnerable Canadian seafood industry right now?
Uncertainty provides Canada with an incentive to diversify its export markets and make the industry more resilient. But we all know that is easier said than done.
The central lesson is that Canada’s seafood industry cannot afford to depend overwhelmingly on one market. Protecting access to the United States should remain a priority, but building alternatives may ultimately be the most important long-term response to the changing North American trade relationship.
This is of course a mid to long-term remedy and does not offer much solace for those harvesters and processors worried about the next economic whim of an ever-increasing, unpredictable U.S. president.
Remember, in most cases, the only thing a bully understands is a bloody nose and he who does not fight back invites more blows.
In the words of the Hanson brothers, we should be “Puttin’ on the foil.”
