A needle in a haystack. A snowball in a blizzard. A black cat in a coal mine.
You get the idea.
Why is cod the Houdini of the fishing industry?
As you all know by now, counting cod is as predictable as the weather of late.
Fishermen report an abundance of cod in some areas, while scientists say they can’t find them.
Harvesters say cod is showing up on their sounders as thick, solid bands, while scientific tow surveys are reporting that the groundfish is no longer found in areas which it has been in the past.
The latest chapter in this ongoing saga played out in January when the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) reported that there are fewer cod in the 3Ps area off the south coast of Newfoundland than ever before.
DFO says the stock has entered the critical zone for the Northern cod population in 3Ps, with a high probability the stock will remain critical through to 2022. If no cod are taken from the water between now and then, DFO says, there is only a 16 per cent chance the stock would show any growth.
Last year, a study predicted a dire future for groundfish in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (SGSL), with a high probability that Atlantic cod will be locally extinct in the region by mid-century.
In 2018, after several years of cautious growth, the commercial Northern cod catch limits were reduced by 25 per cent to under 10,000 tonnes by DFO.
The reduction did not come as a real shock to anyone following DFO’s earlier announcement that 2J3KL cod had experienced a 29 per cent single-year decline in spawning stock biomass (SSB).
In 2018, the 29 per cent single-year decline in spawning stock biomass lead to a catch limit reduction in the stewardship fishery to 9,500 metric tonnes, a 25 per cent reduction relative to 2017. In fact, total reported landings in 2018 were only 9,269 tonnes compared to 13,452 tonnes in 2017.
However, skip ahead a year and the plot changed again.
In the spring of 2019, DFO reported that the SSB for 2J3KL cod had returned to its level of two years ago, about 48 per cent of the critical level needed for a healthy fishery or 398,000 tonnes. In fact, DFO actually revised its 2018 stock projection. The department reported that the 2018 SSB had been revised from 315,000 tonnes to 383,000 tonnes and is anticipated to further increase in 2020.
As a result of this biomass improvement, DFO announced that the 2019 stewardship fishery catches had been increased to 12,350 tonnes, a 30 per cent increase relative to 2018. So, just over a few years, 2J3KL stock predictions went from negative to positive to negative back to positive again.
But take solace that our area of the North Atlantic is not the only region experiencing dire warnings over groundfish stocks.
It seems that the Brexit soap opera is not the only thing the fish and chippies loving nation has to worry about.
Last year, a report published by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (Ices) revealed that North Sea cod stocks had fallen to critical levels. It warned that cod was being harvested unsustainably and recommended a 63 per cent cut in the catch. That’s on top of a 47 per cent reduction the previous year.
And in late December, those recommendations took root, with a 50 per cent cod quota cut announced for the North Sea by EU fisheries regulators.
But despite the troubling news, British cod eaters were taking comfort in the fact that this was the last EU Fisheries Council attended by the U.K. before it becomes an independent coastal state. One Scottish politician was even quoted as saying that “The great news for our fishing industry and coastal communities is that, as we get Brexit done and become an independent coastal state, we will no longer be shackled by the hated Common Fisheries Policy. We will control who fishes in our waters, meaning fantastic new opportunities for this hugely important sector.”
The agreement sets fishing opportunities for the U.K. while it remains part of the EU Common Fisheries Policy.
Once the U.K. has left the EU, it will become an independent coastal state and negotiate on fisheries as a third country with the EU and other coastal states such as Norway and the Faroe Islands.
Judging from the reaction of U.K. politicians, it is probably a very safe bet that in a year from now, cod quotas in British waters will not being seeing another drastic cut. Fish and chips lovers across The Pond can breathe a sigh of relief.
On this side of the Atlantic, the only certainty is that cod quotas are sure to remain uncertain. It is doubtful that breakaway political parties will start popping up all over Atlantic Canada in an effort to remove us from the Canadian Confederation in a concerted effort to produce more trusted and reliable cod stock results.
But as we all know, the solution is not an easy one.
Science cannot take all of the blame. If anything, the DFO Science Division needs more resources to do its job. The voices of fishermen, of course, need to be front and centre regarding fisheries management plans, as well as that of the processors.
It is only going to be through continued hard work and better cooperation that this valuable cod resource will continue to be here for generations to come.
