In 2018, the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) published a document entitled Outlook to 2027 for Canadian Fish and Seafood.
At the time, the paper was aimed at providing market projections for fish and seafood using a dynamic simulation model developed at DFO.
“The Outlook is not a specific prediction of the future, but is a forward-looking assessment based on best available information and is subject to the uncertainties of events and outcomes that cannot be foreseen. Nonetheless, the Outlook provides a baseline expectation to assist in policy development and against which policy changes and external shocks can be evaluated to assess their impacts,” DFO explained at the time.
According to the authors of the now seven-year-old report, global consumption of seafood products is projected to grow approximately nine per cent by 2027, driven in large part by continued population growth and rising income in certain parts of the world.
“Supply increases are expected to be more limited as the rate of growth in aquaculture slows. This will lead to ongoing high prices for fish and seafood over the medium-term, despite the relaxation of prices in other agrifood markets where supply is more robust. Canada’s seafood export value is driven more by prices than by volume, and the particularly high prices for lobster and crab seen in recent years are expected to continue. Although export values will no doubt rise and fall as they have done historically, they will ultimately vary around a higher plateau (approximately $8B) in the coming decade compared to the previous plateau of $4B from 2000 to 2010.”
Ironically, the DFO document also offered a prognostication into our relationship with our seafood trading partners.
“Import demand in several of Canada’s main historical trade partners (EU, U.S., Japan) and domestic demand are expected to remain stable over the coming years, while other markets for Canada’s products expand. Export opportunities will grow in China, South Korea, and countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Globally, many trade-related issues are in flux, as some large economies work out new policies and approaches to trade. These factors may affect world prices and global trade patterns, with some possible disruptions to Canada’s fish and seafood export markets (for example, the unknowns surrounding Brexit). However, the longer-term drivers of seafood demand (population and income) are likely to prevail and support strong exports over the medium-term time frame (10 years) presented in this Outlook.”
The DFO report went on to add that “complementary harvest patterns and a high degree of integration across the Canada-U.S. border in the American lobster supply chain suggest that the success of Canada and U.S. fisheries will remain somewhat tied together, even as trade patterns change and exports to Asia increase over the coming years.”
Wow. I guess you can’t point any fingers at the DFO staffers that penned this document. Back in 2018, who could have predicted Trump 2.0. At the time, the world was still grappling with Trump 1.0. Well, here we are.
As The Navigator has been continually reporting on since Donald Trump’s election win, he still seems determined to hit Canadian imports, including seafood, with a tariff as high as 25 per cent. The threat is still looming, but will he actually follow through? That is the multi-million-dollar question.
Seafood industry analyst John Sackton stated that he believes the industry will not see a worst-case scenario.
“The interdependence of production and consumption in these two countries is so entwined that any dramatic action could be hugely disruptive. In fact, the lobster and crab seasons could begin in Canada without a clear picture of tariffs. In short, the seafood industry may have time to make the necessary market adjustments to accommodate a more balanced approach to tariffs.”
Seafood stakeholders in this country are certainly hoping Sackton’s prediction becomes reality. But time will tell.
In the interim, Trump’s America First manifesto is creating some interesting decisions here at home.
On January 21, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston stated that his government might be willing to reconsider N.S. bans on resource extraction.
This potential change in policy could involve removing long-standing bans on uranium mining, fracking for natural gas and the moratorium on oil and gas exploration on the lucrative fishing grounds of Georges Bank.
“[We] can’t expect Nova Scotia to prosper when we ban industry after industry after industry. I will look at what can be done safely. That’s the lens.”
“We must take the ‘no’ out of Nova Scotia. Special interests have captured too many parts of our economy and have had an out-sized voice in policy creation. That must end. Outright bans of entire sectors are lazy public policy and we will reverse bans and focus on meaningful, mature discussion,” the Premier added.
Hopefully the announcement by Premier Houston is not a harbinger of things to come.
There is currently enough rhetoric flowing up here from south of the border that we do not need to be adding to the panic and confusion domestically.
For now, all we can do is wait and see what happens.
In the words of educator and author Peter Drucker, “trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.”
